Dragon-Kings vs Black Swans

Making extremes predictable: Data evaluation and crises observatories (PDF 5.3 MB) Keynote presentation at the Risk Center Dialogue Event, Friday, 18 January 2013, ETH Zurich, Mainbuilding, Room F3 (www.riskcenter.ethz.ch)

Lorenz Lecture of the Nonlinear Geophysics Section of the American Geophysical Union, entitled "Dragon-Kings, Black Swans and Prediction" (PDF 6.3 MB), AGU Fall Meeting, San Francisco, Moscone Center, 16 December 2010.

From Adam Smith to Financial Crashes: Dragon-kings versus Black Swans, Diagnostics and Forecasts for the World Financial Crisis (PDF 5.3 MB)
Seminar presented at the High School of Economics of Nizhny-Novgorod, 9 September 2010, Nizhny-Novgorod, Russia 

Black Swans, Dragon-Kings and Predictions: Diagnostics and Forecasts for the World Financial Crisis (PDF 5.9 MB)
Invited at the conference Windows to Complexity - Center of Nonlinear Studies, University of Muenster, CeNoS, Westfaelische Wilhelms-Universitaet, 48149 Muenster, 10-11 June 2010 (www.uni-muenster.de/cenos/wtc10i)

Kings and predictions (PDF 3.9 MB)
Invited seminar at Ecole Polytechnique de Lausanne (Swiss Federal Institute of Technology, Lausanne), February 5, 2009, by Marc Parlange, Dean of the School of Architecture, Civil and Environment Engineering