Financial bubbles and crashes

Commodity Bubbles, food security and the Financial Crisis Observatory, invited presentation at the satellite meeting "Food Security - Agricultural Commodity Price Risk and Green Investments: a global challenge" (organized by Conradin Bolliger, Institute for Environmental Decisions IED Agri-food & Agri-Environmental Economics Group, www.afee.ethz.ch) of the 13th Congress of the European Association of Agricultural Economists (EAAE-Congress 2011) August 30 to September 2, 2011, main building ETH Zurich (www.eaae2011.ch). This congress was organized by Agroscope and the Agri-food & Agri-environmental Economics Group of the ETH Zurich headed by Professor Lehmann.

Taming Manias: On the origins, inevitability, prediction and regulation of bubbles and crashes, invited at the conference "Emergence and Design of Robustness" organized by the Institute for Cross-Disciplinary Physics and Complex Systems in Palma de Mallorca (IFISC) and the Max Planck Institute for Physics of Complex Systems in Dresden. 21 September 2010. Invited by the Scientific coordination: Marc-Thorsten Hütt, Jacobs University, Bremen, Germany, Alexander S. Mikhailov, Fritz Haber Institute, Berlin, Germany and Raul Toral, IFISC (UIB-CSIC), Palma di Mallorca, Spain.

Fundamental economic and financial changes and the need for changes to long-term investment approaches, keynote speech at the IPC2010 (International pension fund club (consisting of approx. 60 of the largest pension funds around the world like e.g. PGGM in Holland, Ontario Teachers and TIAA-CREF in Northamerica, USS in the UK, Future Fund in Australia), organized by Dr. Vera Kupper Staub, Leiterin Geschäftsbereich Vermögensanlagen Strassburgstrasse 9, Postfach, 8026 Zürich, 12 July 2010 at Park Hyatt Zurich, Beethoven-Strasse 21, 8002 Zurich, Switzerland.

Financial, Real-Estate Bubble, Derivative Bubbles - Finite-Singularity Models, invited seminar at the Swiss Finance Institute, Faculty of Economics, Universita delle Svizzera Italiana, USI, Via G. Buffi 13, CH-6904 Lugano, invited by Prof. Giovanni Barone-Adesi, 27 November 2009

Séismes et bulles financières: Quelle prévision?, one of the two speakers at the round table "Paroles de chercheurs", on the theme "Séismes et bulles financières: quelle prévision?" with Paul Jorion and Gerard Bonos (journalist), organized by Bertrand Collomb (chairman of the board, was CEO and President of the Lafarge Group) and Marie-Françoise Chevallier-Le Guyader, director of IHEST, 25 November 2009, Conseil Supérieur du Notariat, 60 Blvd de Latour-Maubourg, 756007 Paris.

The Normality of Financial Crises: Prediction of Crisis and Risk Management, conference presented at the first European Summer University of the IHEST on the theme "L'economie, une science qui nous gouverne? Leçon des crises", Saline royale d'Arc-et-Senans, 3-8 Sept 2009, presentation on 3rd September 2009 followed by a round-table with Richard Arena, Christian de Boissieu, Bertrand Collomb and Didier Sornette (9pm-10:30pm).

Financial Bubbles, Real-Estate Bubble, Derivative Bubbles and the Financial and Economic Crisis
Keynote speech at the CCSS International Workshop on Coping with Crises in Complex Socio-Economic Systems, ETH Zurich, June 8-12, 2009, ETH CAB Building, Universitaetsstrasse 6, 8092 Zurich, organized by Dirk Helbing (Coordinator), Kay Axhausen, Lars-Eric Cederman, Hans-Jürgen Herrmann, Frank Schweitzer and Didier Sornette
VIDEO LECTURE

A Complex System View on the Financial and Economic Crises (PDF 2.6 MB)
Keynote talk at the "New approaches to the analysis of large-scale business and economic data" conference, APFA7 (Applications of Physics in Financial Analysis), Conference series entitled Applications of Physics in Financial Analysis focuses on the analysis of large-scale Economic data and THIC (Tokyo tech - Hitotsubashi Interdisciplinary Conference), Tokyo Tech (Tokyo Institute of Technology) and Hitotsubashi University, organized by Misako Takayasu (Department of Computational Intelligence and Systems Science, Tokyo Institute of Technology) and Tsutomu Watanabe (Institute of Eonomic Research, Hitotsubashi University), http://www.thic-apfa7.com/en/htm/index.html
ENGLISH SUMMARY AND DISCUSSION

A Complex System View on the Financial and Economic Crises (PDF 2 MB)
Keynote opening address at the 3rd International and 1st Chinese Forum on Intelligent Finance (IFIF-III & CFIF-I) (Financial Risks + Global Macro + Dynamic Portfolio + Exotic Options + Forex Trading), 26-28 February 2009, Siyuan Building, Chinese Academy of Science, No. 55 East Road, Zhongguancun, Beijing, China

Extremes and the 2008 Financial Crisis (PDF 2.5 MB)
Invited speaker at the International Workshop on Extreme Events: Theory, Observations, Modeling, and Prediction, Palma de Mallorca, November 10-14, 2008, organized by Holger Kantz (MPIPKS) and Manuel A. Matías (IFISC).

Debunking the 2008 crisis (a complex system view of the financial and economic crisis) (PDF 1.8 MB)
Opening talk at the Fribourg Symposium, Fribourg, Switzerland, 7 November 2008 (organized by Damien Challet, Matus Medo and Yi-Cheng)

Financial crises and systemic risks (PDF 2.5 MB)
Lecture presented at the University of Ljubljana, Slovenia, as a member of the Scientific Advisory Board in scope of the RISC programme (RISC: rare incidents with social consequences), 12 September 2008

Why stock markets crash (PDF 8.7 MB)
Lecture at the Ninth Trento Summer School (http://www-ceel.economia.unitn.it), 30 June - 11 July, 2008. Intensive course in Financial Instability and Crises, Co-Directors of the School: Domenico Delli Gatti, Universita Cattolica del Sacro Cuore di Milano and Mauro Gallegati, Universita Politecnica delle Marche, Ancona.
Centro Congressi Panorama (Sardagna - Trento, Italy), a beautiful retreat in the Dolomite Mountains.

Why stock markets crash (PDF 5.5 MB)
3 hour lectures to the students of Physics and of Mathematics of ENS Cachan, organized by the director of the department of Mathematics, Frederic DIAS (http://www.cmla.ens-cachan.fr/Membres/dias), 11 December 2007, Cachan (Paris, France)

Finite-Time Singularities in Population, Economic and Financial Time Series: the End of the Growth Era? (PDF 17.8 MB)
CER-ETH Economics Research Seminar, Monday's research Seminar, 08.05.06, Room ZUE G 1 (Zuerichbergstrasse 18), 17:15h