Dragon-Kings vs Black Swans

DownloadMaking extremes predictable: Data evaluation and crises observatories (PDF, 5.5 MB). Keynote presentation at the Risk Center Dialogue Event, ETH Zurich, January 18, 2013

DownloadLorenz Lecture of the Nonlinear Geophysics Section of the American Geophysical Union, entitled "Dragon-Kings, Black Swans and Prediction" (PDF, 5.5 MB), AGU Fall Meeting, Moscone Center, San Francisco, December 16, 2010

DownloadFrom Adam Smith to Financial Crashes: Dragon-kings versus Black Swans, Diagnostics and Forecasts for the World Financial Crisis (PDF, 5.5 MB), Seminar presented at the High School of Economics of Nizhny-Novgorod, Nizhny-Novgorod, Russia, September 9, 2010

DownloadBlack Swans, Dragon-Kings and Predictions: Diagnostics and Forecasts for the World Financial Crisis, (PDF, 5.5 MB)
invited at the conference Windows to Complexity - Center of Nonlinear Studies, University of Muenster, Westfaelische Wilhelms-University, Muenster, Germany, June 10-11, 2010

DownloadKings and predictions (PDF, 3.8 MB), invited seminar at Ecole Polytechnique de Lausanne (Swiss Federal Institute of Technology, Lausanne), by Marc Parlange, Dean of the School of Architecture, Civil and Environment Engineering, February 5, 2009