Interviews

Facebook, das überschätzte Unternehmen
Peter Cauwels, Swiss Television SF1 "ECO - Das Wirtschaftsmagazin", May 14, 2012, 22:20h

Facebook: l'action à ne pas conseiller à un ami
Peter Cauwels, LE TEMPS, 14 mai 2012

Endowment Funds: Nachholbedarf an den Schweizer Hochschulen
Didier Sornette, SWISSQUOTE Mai 2012

Die Facebook-Blase
Peter Cauwels, BILANZ 09/2012 (Mai 2012)

Appel des dirigeants à la prise de risque
Didier Sornette, Symposium de Saint-Gall, LE TEMPS, 7 mai 2012

Facebook shares are overvalued, say financial analysts
Interview Peter Cauwels with New Scientist, Science in Society on 4 May 2012

Fällt der Kurs von Zynga?
Didier Sornette, Peter Cauwels, Zalan Forro, Schweizermonat, Nr. 996, May 2012

Didier Sornette prévoit la chute des actions Zynga, LE TEMPS, 28 avril 2012

Facebook kauft Foto-App für eine Milliarde
Peter Cauwels, Television Interview "SF Tagesschau" April 11, 2012

Interview Peter Cauwels with the Belgian Financial Newspaper "DE TIJD", April 11, 2012 (in dutch)
- De sociaalnetwerk-sector bevindt zich in een zeepbel

Instagam ist cooler als Facebook
Interview Peter Cauwels with Tagesanzeiger / Newsnet, 10 April 2012

Social Gaming Company Zynga Vastly Overvalued, Say Econophysicist,
P. Cauwels, D. Sornette, Z. Forro, The Physics arXiv Blog (5 april 2012)
http://www.technologyreview.com/blog/arxiv/27704/

Interviews Peter Cauwels with the Belgian Financial Newspaper "DE TIJD", March 16 and 17, 2012 (in dutch)
- Facebook & co blazen volgende beursbubbel
- Kernfysicus wordt zeepbelwatcher
- We moeten geen dijken verhogen maar de maatschappij steker maken

Facebook attendu au tournant
Interview Peter Cauwels avec Patricia Michaud,
printed in La Liberté (Fribourg) - Vendredi 17 février 2012

Le physicien qui prédit les crises économiques
Déjeuner Interview Didier Sornette avec Emmanuel Garessus, Le Temps,
printed in Le Temps - Zooms - Lundi 13 février 2012

Radio Interview at RSR in the program "Le Journal du matin"
Peter Cauwels : The IPO of Facebook (February 3, 2012)

How to Predict Risks
ZURICH MINDS INTERVIEW (December  2011)
http://zurichminds.com/?cat=4#m1768
On YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7jncWyx3I94

Beware the Long Tail
Economic models of risk don't add up, cadre of researchers caution,
by Rachel Ehrenberg, Science News, Nov 5, 2011; Vol.180 #10, p.22
http://www.sciencenews.org/view/feature/id/335383

The Facebook bubble
Facebook's pending initial public offering is greatly anticipated by the media, investors and investment banks. To bring some substance into the debate, ETH senior researcher Peter Cauwels and Prof. Didier Sornette have estimated the company's value using a novel approach. They conclude that facebook should be priced between 15 and 33 billion USD. Currently, valuations are circulating in the business media ranging from 66 to 100 billion USD. This is clearly an over-estimation. Cauwels and Sornette conclude that a new bubble may be in the making. The ETH reaerchers analyzed the user growth of facebook, using data periodically published on the facebook press website. They conclude that the process recently underwent a change in regime. Under pressure of competition, a limited amount of user devices, impenetrable markets and, a fortiori, a limited world population, the growth of facebook users has clearly strarted deviating from the exponential function (which is a paradigm for unlimited growth) and is perfectly following an S-curve (which is a paradigm for growth in competition with saturation). As a final result of their study Cauwels and Sornette calculate a value of facebook of 15.3 billion USD in their base case scenario, 20.2 billion USD in their high growth scenario and 32.9 billion USD in their extreme growth scenario. According to their model, this would imply that facebook would need to increase its profit per user before the IPO by a factor of 3 to 6 in the base case scenario, 2.5 to 5 in high growth scenario and 1.5 to 3 in the extreme growth scenario in order to meet the current, widespread, high expectations.

A synthesis of the paper written by the authors can be found under the following link: http://www.schweizermonat.ch/artikel/the-facebook-bubble und http://www.schweizermonat.ch/artikel/die-facebook-blase. The full paper can be downloaded at http://arxiv.org/abs/1110.1319 .

http://www.ethlife.ethz.ch/archive_articles/111028_facebook_wert_per/index_EN

http://www.sciencenews.org/view/generic/id/335618/title/Facebook_value_overstated%2C_study_finds

http://diepresse.com/home/techscience/internet/701829/Aktien_Was-Facebook-fuer-Physiker-wert-ist

http://www.ictk.ch/content/facebook-massiv-%C3%BCberbewertet

http://vator.tv/news/2011-10-12-facebook-evaluation-is-overblown-claim-physicists

http://atmedia.mindtake.com/news/online/Facebook_ist_%FCberbewertet/20-10-2011/14159/

http://science.orf.at/stories/1689200/

http://www.technologyreview.com/blog/arxiv/27243/

http://www.computerworld.ch/news/it-branche/artikel/wieviel-ist-facebook-wirklich-wert-58149/

http://www.radio24.ch/info24/digital/ETHforscher-holen-Facebook-auf-den-Boden-der-Realitaet-zurueck/story/29335824/print.html

ETH-Forscher holen Facebook auf den Boden der Realität zurück
Tagesanzeiger, 28.10.2011

L'EPFZ juge la valeur de Facebook et de Groupon surévaluée
Le Temp "Finance", 15.11.2011

Radio Interview at RSR in the program "Forum"
Peter Cauwels : Le réseau social Facebook est surévalué! (October 7, 2011) C'est un pavé dans la mare de Facebook que viennent de lancer deux chercheurs de l'Ecole Polytechnique de Zurich. Selon une nouvelle méthode de calcul, ils montrent que les perspectives de croissance du réseau ne sont pas exponentielles et qu'elles peuvent s'arrêter d'ici 2012 ou 2013. La valorisation du plus grand réseau social, évaluée à 80 voire 100 milliards de dollars, serait ainsi largement surestimée.

PROJECT WISDOM
TV & Online program on NHKJ, Japan Broadcasting Corporation, organized by Ms. Ai Kuroyanagi, Director
Question: Trust in the US economy is wavering, as US government bonds were downgraded for the first time in history. The US economy led the world. Will it be able to recover?
Answer: http://www.nhk.or.jp/wisdom/110924/timeline_en/q1/

Question: Following the financial crisis, many countries have increasing debts and sluggish economies. Which is more important, restoring fiscal health or economic-stimulus measures?
Answer: http://www.nhk.or.jp/wisdom/110924/timeline_en/g2/index.html 

Question: The yen's appreciation is bringing advantages and disadvantages. Which is more influential over the Japanese economy.
Answer: http://www.nhk.or.jp/wisdom/110924/timeline_en/g4/index.html

Radio recording at Radio Suisse on the question of a possible bubble on Facebook following the report of 500 millions of earnings for the first half of 2011 and an estimated valuation of 70 billions dollars. (September 9, 2011)
link to the podcad

Interview with the leading Italian daily "Corriere della Sera" on Financial Bubbles.

(CORRIERE ECNOMICA, May 3, 2011)

The Granddaddy of All Bubbles? Worlds markets are frothing like shaken, and doomsayers argue that today's bubbles need to be deflated now before they get dangerously large. Bloomberg Businessweek (April 14, 2011)

Wir sehen zurzeit viele Blasen. Lassen sich Finanzblasen voraussagen?
Interview "schweizer monat" (April 2011)

Comparing the Christchurch Earthquake and the Tohoku Earthquake: lessons learned and future earthquake risks. Contribution to the Tohoku Earthquake Webcast on April 1, 2011 at 11:00 AM (EDT) for a TigerEyeQ webcast as a discussion is hosted with renowned industry experts to provide an informed perspective from scientific, economic, modeling company, and rating agency viewpoints. Discussion topics include: What is the economic impact to the world and insurance industry? Are we dealing with increased seismicity? Was this a Black Swan Event?
http://www.tigerrisk.com/tigereyeq

Zürcher Studierendenzeitung: Ferraries mit alten Motoren - Wer die Welt erklären möchte, braucht interdisziplinäre Modelle, findet Didier Sornette "Die Lösungen kennen wir bereits" (25. März 2011)

Forschung Aktuell - Deutschlandfunk: "Börsencrash mit Ansage"  mit Prof. Didier Sornette (22 März 2011)

The blogs Climate Progress and Watts Up With That discuss our paper Evidence for super-exponentially accelerating atmospheric carbon dioxide growth (http://arxiv.org/abs/1101.2832) (17. März 2011)

Radio Interview at RSR in the program IMPATIENCE (27 December 2010)

"Didier Sornette, Théoricien des catastrophes et des transitions"
Pendant les fêtes, Impatience rencontre des passionautes de la galaxie des sciences. Auhours'hui, Adrien Zerbini rencontre Didier Sornette, professeur à l'Ecole polytechnique fédérale de Zürich. D'abord physicien, il se passionne ensuite pour les sciences de la terre et la risque entrepreneurial. Le point commun entre ces disciplines - au demeurant tout à fait différentes - est un phénomène qui le passionne: la théorie des catastrophes et des transitions. Il existe en effet des points communs entre une crise d'épilepsie, un tremgblement de terre et un crash financer. C'est finalement ce qui le rend particulièrement pertinent lorsqu'il explique que nous vivons actuellement un "pli" de l'aventure humaine: entre aujourd'hui et 2050, le monde va changer.
Un portrait préparé par Adrien Zerbini.

Le chasseur de bulles, by Stephane Wuille, L'Echo, 4 November 2010

Le Richter Scale for Markets, by Eric Dash, Week in Review, The New York Times, July 31, 2010
Im Wunderland - Wir haben eine kognitive Grenze überschritten, von Rolf Dobelli, NZZ Neue Zürcher Zeitung, 23. Juni 2010 

Media coverage of the Financial Bubble Experiment The unpopular prophet of financial markets, Handelsblatt interview with Didier Sornette (in German), 24 April 2010.

The Professor Who Chases Financial Bubbles, PROFILE of Prof. Didier Sornette in Wall Street Journal, 13 March, 2010.

Es gibt zwangsläufig neue Blasen, Coverstory in €URO am Sonntag, 6. Februar 2010

Es gibt zwangsläufig neue Blasen, Interview mit Didier Sornette, wallstreet-online

Die Physik des Drachenkönigs, in DER SPIEGEL, 18. Januar 2010

Auf der Suche nach der Blase, in FRANKFURTER ALLGEMEINE ZEITUNG, 18. Januar 2010  (FAZ.NET)   

Crise : Acte 2 : Dubaï ? samedi 5 décembre 2009

On a eu chaud !
Quoi qu’il ne faille pas crier victoire. Parce que les similitudes sont grandes entre la chute de Lehman Brothers en septembre 2008 et la défaillance de Dubaï en novembre 2009. Heureusement que les bourses étaient fermées aux Etats-Unis et à Dubaï ce qui a permis la réflexion et quelques mesures conservatoires. Mais tout de même. … dans les deux cas on observe que les endettements sont énormes, que l’argent était emprunté à court terme et qu’il avait servi à financer de l’immobilier à long terme et peu liquide.
Et dans les deux cas, personne n’imaginait que la solidarité pourrait faire défaut, qu’il s’agisse des banques ou du puissant voisin. … Et les bulles ont éclaté.
Et l’on nous dit qu’il y en aura d’autres, prochainement.
Avec quelles conséquences ? Même si elles étaient lointaines et purement financières, ces opérateurs ont pour la plupart investi dans nos entreprises qui se sentent fragilisées… Le principe est connu depuis la crise de 29… sauf que de plus en plus, la planète est un mouchoir de poche.
Alors…  (l'entrevue entière)
http://sites.radiofrance.fr/franceinter/em/ruedesentrepreneurs/index.php?id=86200

Die nächste Finanzblase kommt bestimmt
Noch ist die aktuelle Wirtschaftskrise nicht ausgestanden, doch etwas steht bereits fest: Die nächste Finanzblase kommt bestimmt. Die dringenden Fragen: Wo, wie, wann könnte Sie entstehen? Forscher beschäftigen sich intensiv mit diesen Fragen. Einer der innovativsten ist ETH-Professor Didier Sornette.
http://www.drs.ch/www/de/drs/sendungen/top/rendez-vous.html

Der Drachentöter, in NZZ Neue Zürcher Zeitung, Dec 14, 2009

Ich will spielen, in DIE ZEIT - Schweizer Split, Nov 5, 2009

In search of the black swans in research and discoveries, physicworld.com, 2009

Physicists successfully predict stock exchange plunge, New Scientist, 28 August 2009

Linux Evolution Reveals Origins of Curious Mathematical Phenomenon (pdf), Physorg.com, 01 December 2008

The system is at the Tipping Point, TELEPOLIS, 16 October 2008
See original article in German

Interview with Le Temps, Dossier Special, 23 September 2008

Forecasting the future, Interview with CommentVision, a section of Euronews, September 2008.

Why economic theory is out of whack, New Scientist, 19 July 2008

Are We in the Peak of an Oil Bubble?, 07 July 2008
By Lysa Zyga (http://www.physorg.com/)

Comment: Are economic bubbles so bad?
Sumit Paul-Choudhury, from New Scientist Print Edition, 21 June 2008
http://www.newscientist.com/channel/opinion/mg19826615.600-comment-are-economic-bubbles-so-bad.html

Maybe Economic Bubbles Aren't So Bad After All
Posted by:Eric Ames, Wednesday, June 25, 2008
http://www.nuwireinvestor.com/blogs/investorcentric/2008/06/maybe-economic-bubbles-arent-so-bad.html

Rising cost of oil due to Speculation
Jon Cartwright, Physicsworld, June 24, 2008

Epilepsy and Earthquakes

Swiss Banks rethink their ways after massive subprime losses, by Hui Min Neo (Agence France Press), Geneva, Friday, April 25, 2008

Brain quakes, By Mike Martin, The Scientist, Vol 22, Issue 5, page 23 (2008)

Brain 'seismology' helps predict epileptic attacks, NewScientist, January 12, 2008

Epileptic fits, earthquakes are found to share patterns, The Wall Street Journal, January 10, 2008

Uncovering the dynamics of bubbles, The Financial Times, FTfm-FUND MANAGEMENT, November 19, 2007

Didier Sornette modélise l'irrationalité des bulles , page 14, MARCHES & FINANCE, La Tribune, Lundi 17 Aout 2007, www.latribune.fr

Discover Dialogue: Geophysicist Dider Sornette, The Dauphin of Disasters, 'Is the United States economy sustainable? I don't believe it is.'
By Jocelyn Selim, DISCOVER Vol. 26 No. 12, December 2005, Technology

UCLA Press release (Dec. 1, 2004): Physicist Applies Physics to Best-Selling Books

Transcription of the interview with FS Newshour, California - Feb. 2003
(Transcription of the Interview)

UCLA Press release (Dec. 14, 2002): Stock Market Crashes Are Predictable