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Welcome to the Chair of Entrepreneurial Risks
Blogs that discuss our work:
Knackered Hack
FT Alphaville
Slashdot
Technology Review
Return-risks in entrepreneurship
Scientific prediction of complex systems
Decision theory and collective behavior
We are located within the Department of Management, Technology, and Economics
News
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Facebook IPO updated valuation and user forecasting May 2012 |
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D. Sornette and Guy Ouillon, editors of the special issue of The European Physical Journal (May 2012) Special Topics on Discussion and debate: from black swans to dragon-kings - Is there life beyond power laws? Introduction and synthesis chapter: Dragon-kings: Mechanisms, statistical methods and empirical evidence Table of Content |
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How to Predict Risks (December 2011) ZURICH MINDS INTERVIEW http://zurichminds.com/?cat=4#m1768 On YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7jncWyx3I94 |
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Optimization of brain and life performance: Striving for playing at the top for the long run November 2011 Essay written by D. Sornette, German version published as "Du kannst dein Leben steigern" in Schweizer Monat, Dezember 2011/Januar 2012; 38-49 (e-print available at http://arxiv.org/abs/1111.4621) Version française |
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The Facebook Bubble November 2011 - Facebook's pending initial public offering is greatly anticipated by the media, investors and investment banks. To bring some substance into the debate, ETH senior researcher Peter Cauwels and Prof. Didier Sornette have estimated the company's value using a novel approach. They conclude that Facebook should be priced between 15 and 30 billion USD. A synthesis of the paper written by the authors can be found under the following link: http://www.schweizermonat.ch/artikel/the-facebook-bubble . The full paper can be downloaded at http://arxiv.org/abs/1110.1319 |
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International Conference on Econophysics (ICE) June 6, 2011 Closing remarks on "Visions on the future of econophysics" as co-chairman of the International Conference on Econophysics (ICE), East China University of Science and Technology (ECUST) (http://rce.ecust.edu.cn/index.php/ice2011) |
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Didier Sornette goes to South Africa: 7 May 2011 Extraordinary lucky encounter with a young teenage leopard jumping on an Impala just as we drove in, filming the whole combat at a distance between 10 meters at the beginning down to 3 meters in the last few seconds of the fight. Taken within the National park of PILANESBERG in South Africa (www.pilanesberg-game-reserve.co.za) Being scientists working on rare and extreme events, this encounter is particularly striking to us as we estimate the probability to view such a fight to be exceedingly small, perhaps one in ten billion. |
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Third FBE Results and Analysis 3 May, 2011 The third set of results from the FBE were published today. Results and analysis are available on the FCO webpage. |
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D. Sornette and S. Von der Becke, Complexity clouds finance-risk models (A response to
Andrew G. Haldane & Robert M. May, Neil Johnson and Thomas Lux),
Nature 471, 166 (10 March 2011) "long version: Systemic Risk in Banking: It is complex but not that complicated" |
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AGU Fall Meeting, San Francisco, 16 December 2010 Lorenz Lecture of the Nonlinear Geophysics Section of the American Geophysical Union, entitled "Dragon-Kings, Black Swans and Prediction". |
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Complexity vs Predictability "Prediction Crisis and Triumph" (Can the complex system approach be useful to you?) invited talk at the ZURICH.MINDS Flagship Event at the Kaufleuten club hall downtown Zurich, 16 September 2010. (www.zurichminds.com) |
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Second FBE Results and Analysis 1 November, 2010 The second set of results from the FBE were published today. Results and analysis are available on the FCO webpage. |
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Financial Bubble Experiment - Initial Results 3 May, 2010 Professor Didier Sornette is convinced that financial markets are not just random. Consequently, his Financial Crisis Observatory conducted a daring experiment to prove that you can forecast financial bubbles. Today, Professor Sornette presented the results of the experiment at a press conference. Initial results and analysis of the FBE forecasts are available on the FCO webpage. |
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Bursting the Genomics Bubble 31 March 2010 Nature reports on research by Monika Gisler, Didier Sornette and Ryan Woodard, who argue that the Human Genome Project was a 'social bubble', analogous to the notorious economic bubbles in which investment far outstrips any rational cost-benefit analysis of the likely returns. Full article is here. |
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The Professor Who Chases Financial Bubbles March 13, 2010 A Wall Street Journal PORTRAIT of Prof. Didier Sornette and the 'Financial Bubble Experiment'. |
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DARPA Network Challenge December 5, 2009 Our recently departed post-doc, Riley Crane, has led a group of researchers at MIT to win a DARPA-Pentagon-sponsored contest to correctly identify the location of 10 red balloons distributed around the United States (link). |
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Financial Bubble Experiment 1 Nov, 2009 We introduce a new experiment involving the forecasts of the end of bubbles in financial time series using techniques developed over the past 15 years. More information can be found in the first delivery of the Financial Bubble Experiment. |
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Riley Crane joined MIT Media Lab October 1, 2009 Riley Crane was a Postdoctoral Fellow
in our group for three years and his collaboration is ongoing. He is now a Branco Weiss ``Society in
Science'' senior Postdoctoral Fellow, working in Professor Pentlands's
Human Dynamics Group, at the Media Lab at MIT. The highlight of his research at ETH is the
demonstration of large-scale word-of-mouth epidemics at the origin of
successes of videos in a large YouTube video database (link) |
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Dragon Kings, Black Swans and the Prediction of Crises July 30, 2009 D. Sornette, International Journal of Terraspace Science and Engineering 2(1), 1-17 (2009), (http://arXiv.org/abs/0907.4290) Featured on the FT blog "Dragon-king of the outlier events" |
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Economic Networks: The New Challenges July 24, 2009 F. Schweitzer, G. Fagiolo, D. Sornette, F. Vega-Redondo, A. Vespignani, and D. R. White, Economic Networks: The New challenges, Science 325, 422-424 (2009) |
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Chinese Equity Bubble Prediction July 10, 2009 Our analysis of this main Chinese equity index shows clear signatures of a bubble build up and we go on to predict its most likely crash date: July 17-27, 2009 (see paper). |
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CCSS International Workshop on Coping with Crises in Complex Socio-Economic Systems June 8-12, 2009 Didier Sornette gave a keynote address entitled 'Financial Bubbles, Real-Estate Bubble, Derivative Bubbles and the Financial and Economic Crisis' |
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International Workshop on Seizure Prediction June 4-7, 2009 Didier Sornette gave a 3 hour long keynote address on ``The Challenge of Prediction'' at the Fourth International Workshop on Seizure Prediction (ISPW4) in Kansas City, hosted by the Alliance for Epilepsy Research (http://www.iwsp4.org/) |
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Workshop on Essentials of Effective Enterprise Risk Management May 28, 2009 |
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Financial Bubbles, Real Estate bubbles, Derivative Bubbles, and the Financial and Economic Crisis April, 2009 This paper by Didier Sornette and Ryan Woodard (http://arxiv.org/abs/0905.0220) will appear in the Proceedings of APFA7 (Applications of Physics in Financial Analysis, http://www.thic-apfa7.com/en/htm/index.html) |
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Physicists Try To Predict The Economy March 23, 2009 Article in the April issue of Portfolio.com discusses the work of Sornette, Helbing and others who argue that our current crisis was in fact predictable and that the technology exists to make sure that it won’t happen again. |
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Investors Misperception March 5, 2009 Shengsui Hu won the Doctoral Student Award at the Midwest Finance Association Annual Conference, Chicago, 2009 for his presentation Investors Misperception: A Hidden Source of High Markups in the Mutual Fund Industry |
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Hitotsubashi Interdisciplinary Conference March 4, 2009 Professor Didier Sornette was invited to give a Plenary Lecture at the Hitotsubashi Interdisciplinary Conference on "New Approaches to the Analysis of Large-Scale Business and Economic Data" in Tokyo. |
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The Illusion of Control March 1, 2009 Arguments for and against the reform of the international financial system following the 2008 banking crisis are slowly being more fully detailed. Not in political discourses, but thanks to scientific research which, in spite of its theoretical nature, can still provide reasonable, pragmatic solutions. An interview with Didier Sornette (in French). |
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Honorary Professor February 20, 2009 Prof. D. Sornette was conferred the title of "Honorary Professor'' by East China University of Science and Technology in Shanghai. |
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Financial Trust Index The mission of the Financial Trust Index is to monitor the level of trust Americans have in banks, the stock market etc. and to regularly assess how current events, policy and government intervention might affect this trust. Read the following comment on the 'Trust Crisis'. |
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Kings and Prediction February 5, 2009 Didier Sornette gave an invited seminar at Ecole Polytechnique de Lausanne (Swiss Federal Institute of Technology, Lausanne) |
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Endo-exo model of the immune system and of pathogens February 4, 2009 ETH life reviews 'Endo-exo model of the immune system and of pathogens' by Sornette D., Yukalov V.I., Yukalova E.P., Henry J.Y., Schwab D., Cobb J.P., Journal of Biological Systems 17(2), 225-267 (2009) |
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World Knowledge Dialogue The Swiss university system is committed to bringing the two cultures of natural sciences and human/social sciences closer together. To meet the challenge it has created the World Knowledge Dialogue Foundation. Videos from past symposia can be viewed here. |
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Mathematical Distribution Links Open Source Software And Literature February 2, 2009 ScienceDaily reports on research by Thomas Maillart et al. |
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The 2006-2008 Oil Bubble and Beyond February, 2009 New paper by D. Sornette, R. Woodard and W.-X. Zhou. Physica A 388, 1571-1576 (2009). |
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Will CDS spreads tumble in February? January 27, 2009 A Financial Times blog discusses analysis by Fortis bank using the theory of Didier Sornette. |
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Short- and long-term propositions for the financial crisis: back to the fundamentals January 14, 2009 A new essay on the causes of the financial crisis and proposed solutions by Didier Sornette |
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Statistics: One size fits all December 4, 2008 Nature reports on research by T. Maillart, D. Sornette, S. Spaeth, and G. von Krogh providing empirical evidence for Zipf's law in open source software. The full paper is published in PRL. |
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Inspiring Articles: The End November 11, 2008 The era that defined Wall Street is finally, officially over. Michael Lewis, who chronicled its excess in Liar’s Poker, returns to his old haunt to figure out what went wrong. Read the full article, published in Portfolio Magazine. |
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YouTube research November 11, 2008 ETHLife reports on Riley Crane and Didier Sornette's work that investigates the viewing patterns of YouTube videos. The full paper is published in PNAS. |
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Trust! Why it Has Been Lost and How to Regain It November 4, 2008 This essay by Didier Sornette was published in the Occasional Paper Series of the Swiss Finance Institute. |
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Inspiring Articles: Options for Managing Systemic Bank Crises November 1, 2008 White Paper on Systemic Bank Crises by Bernhard Lietaer et al. Also see the very interesting work of Bernhard Lietaer at http://www.lietaer.com |
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CCSS official opening September 23, 2008 See the CCSS homepage. |
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The Financial Crisis Observatory (FCO) August, 2008 The Financial Crisis Observatory was formed. |
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