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Farewell-Lecture
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2013 News and older
About us
Vision Statement
Entrepreneurial Risks
Heavy-tailed distribution of innovations
Pharmaceutical industry
Model of economic return of R&D
The Donation-Payment Gift Card Concept
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Finance and economic theory applied to Innovations and Entrepreneurship
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A complex system approach to Entrepreneurship
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Financial Crisis Observatory
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Predicting Success
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Complex Systems
Earthquake Source
Crisis
Prediction of Catastrophes
1 - Introduction
2 - Prediction of Rupture in Complex Systems
3 - Towards a Prediciton of Earthquakes?
4 - Predicting Financial Crashes?
5 - Predicting Human Parturition
References
Quantitative Predictions
Computer Risks
Education
Lectures
Degrees offered by D-MTEC
Projects for Master Theses
Seminars
Prof. Dr. Alan Fiske (10.10.11)
Prof. Dr. Sergey Smirnov (7.10.10)
Prof. Dr. Cars Hommes (15.12.09)
Symposium on Integrative Risk Management (Sep 2009)
Symposium on Integrative Risk Management (June 2009)
International Workshop on Challenges and Visions in the Social Sciences (Aug 2008)
Lectures in Entrepreneurial Leadership (5-8 Feb 08)
Dr. Dave Snowden (4 Feb 08)
Media
Chartwell speaker profile
Publications
Social Systems/Finance
Crypto-currencies and blockchain
The Swiss Sovereign Fund project
Bubbles and crashes: theory
Bubbles and crashes: theory - empirical analyses
Social Bubbles as Levers of Innovation
Critical industries
Methods and techniques for financial markets
Agent-based models
Asset pricing, portfolio theory, option theory, yield curve
Behavioral finance, social dilemmas, cooperation
Quantum decision theory
Volatility and return, anomalies and predictions
Complex Systems and Self Organization
Concepts and techniques
Dragon-Kings
Epileptic seizures, immune system, biological systems
Internet, open-source softwares, cyber-risks, networks
Lead-lag time-dependent correlations (TOP method)
Predictability and endo-exo dynamics
Self-organized criticality, critical systems, power laws
Self-excited (Hawkes) branching processes
Discrete Scale Invariance
Earthquakes and Ruptures
Entrepreneurial Investments
PhD and Master Theses
Books
Cascading Disaster Modelling and Prevention
Global Earthquake Forecasting System (GEFS) Special Issue: Towards Using Non-seismic Precursors for the Prediction of Large Earthquakes
Critical Risks of Different Economic Sectors (2020)
New Ways and Needs for Exploiting Nuclear Energy (2018)
Why Stock Markets Crash? - US Edition (2017)
Man-made Catastrophes and Risk Information Concealment (2015)
New Facets of Economic Complexity in Modern Financial Markets (2012)
Discussion and Debate: from black swans to dragon-kings - Is there life beyond power laws? (2012)
Theory of Zipf's Law and Beyond (2009)
Extreme Financial Risks (2006)
Critical Phenomena in Natural Sciences (2nd ed., 2006)
Why Stock Markets Crash? - US Edition (2003)
Why Stock Markets Crash? - Russian Translatio (2003) n
Why Stock Markets Crash? - Japanese Translation (2003)
Scale Invariance and Beyond (1997)
The Great 1976 Tangshan Earthquake: Learning from the 1966-1976 Chinese Prediction Program
Interviews
Critical infrastructures
The Swiss Sovereign Fund
Media Coverage of the Financial Bubble Experiment
Quantification of reflexivity in financial and commodity markets
Social network valuations
Real Estate Bubbles
Earth Nighttime Lights
Dragon-Kings
Risks
Essays
Ranking electricity supplies
Indexed into the Financial Bubble and/or bubbled into the financial index?
Risk Management
Mythes, réalités et objectif genéral des transactions à haute fréquence
What percentage of our ancestors were men?
The Illusion of the Perpetual Money Machine
Novel financial management is needed
Spurious switching points in traded stock dynamics
The ETH Centre for Integrative Risk Management, June 2010
Short- and long-term propositions for the financial crisis: back to the fundamentals
Trust! Why It Has Been Lost And How To Regain It
Financial Crises Recipe: Moral Hazard, Herding and Returns
On worrying trends in statistical physics approaches to seismicity
Internal Management of the ETH Foundation endowment
Are financial market crashes predictable?
A Complex System View of Why Stock Markets Crash
The power of interdisciplinarity
Celebrating the Physics in Geophysics
On Universality
Endogenous versus Exogenous Origins of Crises
Sandpile Models
Breakfast Meeting 11 May 2021
Presentations
Video Lectures
Crypto-currencies
Quantum Decision Theory
Economic and Financial Exploratory
Endogenous versus exogenous dynamics
Finance: theory and agent-based models
Financial bubbles and crashes
Human cooperation, fairness, strong reciprocity
Complex systems
Methods and concepts
Earthquakes and rupture in material sciences
Biological and medical research
Dragon-Kings vs Black Swans
Inspiring Articles
The Fiduciary Principle: No Man Can Serve Two Masters
How Little We Know: The Challenges of Financial Reform
How Did Economists Get It So Wrong?
The Quiet Coup
The End Game Draws Nigh
Systemic Bank Crises
The End
Complex Population Dynamics
Smart Heuristics
Certain to Win
A call for empirical economics
Napoléon Bonaparte
On Science, Scientists and Education
How to be a genius
Leadership and Change
Is Economics a Science? - Discussion
Sparking Creativity at Ferrari
Is Economics a Science?
A Stock Market of Creativity and Innovation
History of American Corporate Capitalism
March 2006 update on the US real-estate bubble
Entrepreneurial opportunities in the Pharmaceutical industry?
Behavioural Science and Corporate Behavior
The Four Relational Models of Alan Fiske
Real Estate Observatory
Forecasts
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Media Coverage
Publications
Scientific Publications on Real Estate Bubbles
Bi-Annual Report on the Swiss Real Estate Market in Collaboration with comparis AG
Financial Crisis Observatory
Description
Highlights
Bubble Risk Maps
Is there an oil bubble?
Pertinent articles
Websites and Blogs
Market Anxiety Measure
The Financial Crisis: How Much Longer and Deeper?
Nuclear energy
ETHZ Curated Nuclear Events Database
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Open PhD Positions at Risks-X
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