Pertinent articles

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The Financial Crisis of 2015: An Avoidable History, (PDF, 311 KB)
an Oliver Wyman publication (2011)

5 Investing Bubbles (PDF, 346 KB)by Stephen Gandel, Contributor (Aug 23, 2010) CNN Monday

Even after multiple crashes, investors still tend to pile into overheated sectors. Where are the biggest risks today? "A Fantastic Time for Bubbles"

Asset bubbles and the implications for central bank policy (April 7, 2010)

Speech by Mr William C Dudley, President and Chief Executive Officer of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, at the Economic Club of New York, New York City, 7 April 2010.

Mother of all carry trades faces an inevitable bust By Nouriel Roubini (Nov 1, 2009)

Roubini states that there is global bubble due to the carry trade on the dollar, but warns that one day this bubble will burst, leading to the biggest coordinated asset bust ever.

Science comes to the rescue of Finance (PDF, 561 KB) (Sept 25, 2009)

BILAN article quoting the FCO prediction of the Shanghai downturn as a success. Note: Article is in French.


Predicting Crises (Sept 2009)

Part 1: Do Coming Crises Cast Their Shadows Before? by Bharat Trehan
Part 2: Did Anything Matter (to Everybody)? by Andrew K. Rose and Mark M. Spiegel


How Did Economists Get It So Wrong? 
By Paul Krugman, New York Times (6 Sept 2009)

Few economists saw our current crisis coming, but this predictive failure was the least of the field’s problems. More important was the profession’s blindness to the very possibility of catastrophic failures in a market economy. During the golden years, financial economists came to believe that markets were inherently stable — indeed, that stocks and other assets were always priced just right. There was nothing in the prevailing models suggesting the possibility of the kind of collapse that happened last year. What happened to the economics profession? And where does it go from here?

A Tale of Two Depressions by Barry Eichengreen and Kevin H. O’Rourke (June 4, 2009)

World industrial production, trade, and stock markets are diving faster now than during 1929-30. Fortunately, the policy response to date is much better. The update shows that trade and stock markets have shown some improvement without reversing the overall conclusion -- today's crisis is at least as bad as the Great Depression.

Time for a Reality Check by John Mauldin (Feb 13, 2009)

It is not just the US that is in recession. The world is slowing down, and rapidly. This week we quickly survey the rest of the world, and then come back to the US. We follow up with the implications for corporate earnings worldwide, and specifically address my speculations about earnings forecasts for 2009. Also see John Mauldin's Thoughts from the Frontline.

Deciphering the Liquidity and Credit Crunch 2007-08 by Markus Brunnermeier

This paper summarizes and explains the main events of the liquidity and credit crunch in 2007-08. Starting with the trends leading up to the crisis, Brunnermeier explains how these events unfolded and how four different amplification mechanisms magnified losses in the mortgage market into large dislocations and turmoil in financial markets.

Taleb's `Black Swan' Investors Post Gains as Markets Take Dive 

Investors advised by ``Black Swan'' author Nassim Taleb have gained 50 percent or more this year as his strategies for navigating big swings in share prices paid off amid the worst stock market in seven decades

Buffett Says Economy on Floor: Charlie Rose

Billionaire Warren Buffett talked with Charlie Rose on Oct 1, 2008, in San Diego about Berkshire Hathaway Inc.'s $3 billion investment in General Electric Co., debate in Congress on a $700 billion financial-rescue package and the outlook for the U.S. economy and financial markets.

Le Temps interview with Didier Sornette

La gestion des risques passe toujours après les affaires

"Images of a Shrinking and Damaged Planet" and High Commodity Prices

Comment by Mark Thoma on Seeing is believing, by Robert Shiller, Project Syndicate. Shiller states that in addition to explosive growth in emerging countries, "psychology also matters in speculative markets, and perhaps that image of the Greenland ice disappearing makes it seem all too plausible that everything else- land, water, even fresh air - is running out too."

A Value Investor Looks At China by Vitaliy Katsenelson

Value Investor Vitaliy Katsenelson gives some reasons why the outlook for China might not be so bright. This has implications for lots of markets that are driven by Asian demand. To describe today's environment, he uses James Monitor's precise definition: a "global growth expectations" bubble.

"It is difficult to make predictions, especially about the future"

Interesting view on one of the most cited prediction quotes. From 'Correspondence' in Nature.

 
 
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