Background

Will Oil Prices Decline over the Long Run? European Central Bank, Occasional Paper Series, October 2008

At present, oil markets appear to be behaving in a fashion similar to that in the late 1970s and early 1980s when oil prices rose sharply over an extended period. Furthermore, like at that time, analysts are split on whether such increases will persist or reverse, and if so by how much. The present paper argues that the similarities between the two episodes are not as strong as they might appear at first sight, and that the likelihood of sharp reversals in prices is not particularly great.

World Petroleum Congress Medium-Term Oil Market Report, July 1, 2008

An interesting pedagogical presentation by the International Energy Agency (IEA) on the problem.

International Energy Agency (IEA) World Oil Market Report, May 13 2008

With oil prices reaching $125/bbl, calls for more oil are getting louder. But do we really need more oil? This reports looks at the current balances, forecasting risks and some of the market perceptions that may have been driving the oil price in order to answer this question.

Giant Oil Fields - The Highway to Oil, Faculty of Science and Technology, Robelius F. (2007), PhD., Uppsala University, 168 Pages.

The domination of giant fields in global oil production confirms a concept where they govern future production. A model, based on past annual production and ultimate recoverable reserve, has been developed to forecast future production from giant fields. The results, in combination with forecasts on new field developments, heavy oil and oil sand, are used to predict future oil production. In all scenarios, peak oil occurs at about the same time as the giant fields peak. The worst-case scenario sees a peak in 2008 and the best-case scenario, following a 1.4 % demand growth, peaks in 2018.

OPEC's Growing Call on Itself by Jeff Rubin and Peter Buchanan, CIBC Occasional Report #62, September 10, 2007

Oil producers are expected to be able to maintain total production rates close to current levels, but exports from the region are likely to drop by as much as 2.5 million barrels per day over the balance of the decade. Exports will effectively be crowded out by soaring domestic oil consumption, dually charged by rapidly rising domestic incomes and by highly subsidized oil prices.