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FCO Blog
The FCO blog discusses how the system approach allows one to develop diagnostic methods and predictions of crises.
CHINESE EQUITY (10 July 2009)
Amid the current financial crisis, there has been one
equity index beating all others: the Shanghai Composite. Our analysis
of this main Chinese equity index shows clear signatures of a bubble
build up and we go on to predict its most likely crash date: July 17-27, 2009 (20%/80% quantile confidence interval).
Financial Bubbles, Real Estate bubbles, Derivative Bubbles, and the Financial and Economic Crisis
Didier
Sornette and Ryan Woodard (2009), to appear in the Proceedings of APFA7 (Applications of Physics in
Financial Analysis).
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